A ruling by a court in Izmir to let American pastor Andrew Brunson walk free would go a long way toward defusing the worst diplomatic crisis in decades between the U.S. and its NATO ally. “If he is released, the Turkish lira is likely to rally, and this in turn would lessen pressure on the central bank to act,” said Piotr Matys, a currency strategist at Rabobank. The U.S. imposed sanctions over Brunson’s detention, and the threat of further punishments hangs over the lira, which has already lost almost 40 percent of its value against the dollar this year.

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