Tag Archives: Risk

Biden saying he'd only serve one term would be an Election Day risk with little reward, new Insider poll shows

Biden saying he'd only serve one term would be an Election Day risk with little reward, new Insider poll showsFormer Vice President Joe Biden would seemingly risk losing much more than he'd gain from announcing his intention to serve one term.



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US asks UN to discuss risk of N.Korea 'provocation'

US asks UN to discuss risk of N.Korea 'provocation'The United States on Monday called a UN Security Council meeting this week on the risk of North Korean “provocation” as Pyongyang demands US concessions by a year-end deadline. The United States, which holds this month’s presidency of the Security Council, is scheduling the session instead of a planned meeting on human rights in North Korea, one of the world’s most authoritarian states. This week’s meeting will provide “a comprehensive update on recent developments on the Korean Peninsula, including recent missile launches and the possibility of an escalatory DPRK provocation,” a State Department spokesperson said, referring to the North by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.



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Kenya’s Salve for Ethnic Animosity Is at Risk of Backfiring

Kenya’s Salve for Ethnic Animosity Is at Risk of Backfiring(Bloomberg) — Sign up to our Next Africa newsletter and follow Bloomberg Africa on TwitterA plan championed by Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga to end ethnic animosity may end up widening fault lines that have triggered sporadic violence in the East African nation.The two men commissioned a study on how to promote reconciliation in the wake of a disputed election in 2017 that threatened to reignite a conflict in which more than 1,100 people died a decade earlier. Their so-called Building Bridges Initiative envisions an end to a winner-take-all electoral system, watering down the executive’s powers and an enhanced role for parliament, according to a draft seen by Bloomberg. The document was verified by people with knowledge of the report, who asked not to be identified because the information is still private and could be amended.While most politicians initially welcomed the rapprochement between the one-time foes and their attempts at nation-building, it’s caused ructions in the ruling Jubilee Party because it could pave the way for Odinga to become president in 2022 and leave Kenyatta’s deputy, William Ruto, out in the cold.“Ruto is deeply suspicious of BBI because he sees it as a vehicle to create a coalition that excludes him,” said Nic Cheeseman, a professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham in the U.K. “The threat is that this then raises the political temperatures, and each side starts to prepare for the worst.”Ethnic-Based CoalitionsKenyan politics have long been a minefield, with largely ethnic-based coalitions determining who wields power. The five biggest groups are Kenyatta’s Kikuyu, Ruto’s Kalenjin, Odinga’s Luo, the Luhya and the Kamba, and whoever secures backing from at least three of them is almost assured of winning the presidency.Allegiances are consistently shifting. Ethnic violence, mainly between Kenyatta and Ruto supporters, flared up after a disputed 2007 vote and both men were indicted by the International Criminal Court for their alleged roles in the bloodshed until the cases were thrown out for lack of evidence.The two then joined forces to win elections in 2013 and 2017. While Ruto backed Kenyatta for the presidency on the understanding that he’d be next in line for the job in 2022, their relationship has soured since Odinga entered the fray.“The intention from the word go is to give Raila a safe route to power,” said Herman Manyora, a political analyst and lecturer at the University of Nairobi. “For as long as it destroys Ruto’s presidential dream, he won’t support it.”Monumental ReportOdinga, 74, who leads the Orange Democratic Movement and has unsuccessfully run for office four times, has also had a fractious relationship with Kenyatta and accused him of stealing the last two elections. They reconciled in March 2018, but the terms of the deal they reached were never publicly revealed.Odinga last year said he’d continue to push for a raft of reforms including the reintroduction of the role of a prime minister — a post he held under a power-sharing accord that helped halt the 2007-8 violence.A final version of the Building Bridges Initiative report will be presented to Kenyatta and Odinga this week, according to Martin Kimani, the secretary of a panel that’s drafting the plan. He described its contents as “monumental,” but declined to reveal details.Besides proposing changes to the way the government is structured, the panel will also make recommendations on how to tackle corruption and share out the nation’s prosperity, according to its nine-point brief. The initiative will be subjected to a national debate and possibly a referendum before being formally adopted.Burning BridgesIf a referendum does happen, it will likely be a dress rehearsal of the 2022 vote that will pit Odinga against Ruto, according to Manyora.Ruto will back the new plan if it benefits the Kenyan people, but will oppose it if it only creates positions for a few, his spokesman David Mugonyi said by phone.Odinga’s spokesman Dennis Onyango said he couldn’t talk about the BBI report because he hasn’t seen it, while Kenyatta’s publicist Kanze Dena declined to comment.It’s unclear whether the new initiative will have the desired effect, said Bobby Mkangi, a lawyer who helped draft Kenya’s current constitution.“In a sense, it could either be burning bridges or building bridges,” he said. “We may have to engage in a trial-and-error journey in the quest of nation-building and trying to find what works best for us and mitigate exclusion.”\–With assistance from Mike Cohen.To contact the reporter on this story: David Herbling in Nairobi at dherbling@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Richardson at pmrichardson@bloomberg.net, David Malingha, Mike CohenFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.



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Far more people at risk of rising seas than feared -climate study

Far more people at risk of rising seas than feared -climate studyClimate change will put three times more people at risk of coastal flooding by 2050 than previously thought, according to a study published on Tuesday, with swathes of Asia and cities in North America and Europe all vulnerable to rising seas. The research by Climate Central www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z, a U.S.-based non-profit climate science and news organisation, underscored the scale of the upheaval projected to unfold as global warming increasingly threatens some of the world’s most densely-populated regions. The study found that 300 million people are now living on land that is likely to flood at least once a year on average by mid-century without adequate sea defences, even if governments manage to make sharp cuts in emissions.



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Eating yogurt and a high-fiber diet could lower the risk of lung cancer

Eating yogurt and a high-fiber diet could lower the risk of lung cancerNew research has found that eating a diet which includes yogurt and is rich in fiber could help reduce the risk of lung cancer. Carried out by researchers from Vanderbilt University Medical Center, USA, along with Seoul National University, South Korea, the new study looked at more than 1.4 million adults who took part in studies in the United States, Europe and Asia. The findings, published in JAMA Oncology, showed that both fiber and yogurt intake appeared to reduce the risk of lung cancer.



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UPDATE 1-Hong Kong protest leaders urge turnout for march, despite risk of arrest

UPDATE 1-Hong Kong protest leaders urge turnout for march, despite risk of arrestPro-democracy leaders called on Hong Kong’s citizens to join a Sunday anti-government march in spite of the risk of arrest, after police banned the rally which is seen as a test of the protest movement’s strength following months of unrest. Police declared the march illegal on Friday, citing concerns over public safety, and a court on Saturday said the destination of the march – the main railway interchange with mainland China – could be attacked and vandalised. Hardcore protesters have in recent weeks targeted mainland Chinese businesses, daubing them in graffiti and at times setting fires, while mainland Chinese living in Hong Kong have begun to express fears for their own safety.



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Hong Kong protest leaders urge turnout for march, despite risk of arrest

Hong Kong protest leaders urge turnout for march, despite risk of arrestPro-democracy leaders called on Hong Kong’s citizens to join a Sunday anti-government march in spite of the risk of arrest, after police banned the rally which is seen as a test of the protest movement’s strength following months of unrest. Police declared the march illegal on Friday, citing concerns over public safety, and a court on Saturday said the destination of the march – the main railway interchange with mainland China – could be attacked and vandalized. Hardcore protesters have in recent weeks targeted mainland Chinese businesses, daubing them in graffiti and at times setting fires, while mainland Chinese living in Hong Kong have begun to express fears for their own safety.



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Elizabeth Warren’s Fracking Proposal Has Shale Investors Weighing E&P Risk

Elizabeth Warren’s Fracking Proposal Has Shale Investors Weighing E&P Risk(Bloomberg) — The prospect of Elizabeth Warren becoming the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, or the 46th president of the U.S., has energy investors worrying about risks to hydraulic fracturing.“What happens if Elizabeth Warren becomes president and bans fraccing?” was the most common question Sanford C. Bernstein received during recent marketing, analysts led by Bob Brackett said in note Tuesday. They don’t currently have a good answer.Concern on Wall Street has been rising along with Warren’s poll numbers, with sectors such as financials, health care and industrials as well as energy identified among those at risk from her policy proposals.In early September, Warren tweeted that she would ban fracking “everywhere” if she becomes president:READ MORE: The 2020 Democrats Agree on 7 Ways to Fight Climate ChangeThe former part of Warren’s plan would have a modest longer-term impact given the “mature state” of areas such as onshore Alaska or the federal Gulf of Mexico, according to Bernstein. However, a fracking ban would offer “much more immediate consequences,” and be “incredibly bullish for both global oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices.”Federal leasing changes could have the most impact on shale drillers such as EOG Resources Inc. and Devon Energy Corp., Brackett said. Kosmos Energy, Hess Corp., Apache Corp. and ConocoPhillips may have little to worry about from a fracking ban, however.Still, any impact from a Warren win may be short-lived. “We have a government with checks and balances,” Brackett noted, pointing to processes which have caused executive orders to be moderated. He also highlighted the ability of E&Ps to re-allocate capital to mitigate effects.And, as RBC Capital Markets wrote earlier this week, most of the sectors seen to be at high risk “are already deeply undervalued versus the broader market.”Canada ImplicationsThere may also be some beneficiaries. UBS analyst Lloyd Byrne recently identified Canadian producers such as Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Suncor Energy Inc. as likely to gain from curbs on drilling in U.S. federal acreage.Though at least one investment bank isn’t so certain Canada’s oil-patch will benefit from a Warren victory, given her and fellow presidential candidate Bernie Sanders haven’t been so friendly on their stance for pipeline projects. Energy investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. cited Warren’s opposition to Enbridge Inc.’s Line 3 oil pipeline replacement and expansion project, along with the mention of permits being revoked for TC Energy Corp.’s long-delayed Keystone XL oil pipeline.Also, Sanders is opposed to Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline. “We’d caution the enthusiasm,” analysts from Tudor told clients in a note Wednesday.(Updates section on Canadian energy impact, adds tweet)To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Bellusci in Toronto at mbellusci2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Brad Olesen at bolesen3@bloomberg.net, Morwenna Coniam, Jeremy R. CookeFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.



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Lights out? PG&E plans to shut off power for more than 800K customers in California to reduce wildfire risk

Lights out? PG&E plans to shut off power for more than 800K customers in California to reduce wildfire riskPacific Gas & Electric and Southern California Edison may shut off power for nearly a million customers in an effort to prevent wildfires.



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California wildfire risk prompts planned mass cutoff of PG&E power

California wildfire risk prompts planned mass cutoff of PG&E powerNearly 800,000 California homes and businesses can expect to lose electricity for up to several days from Wednesday, in a planned PG&E power shutdown of unprecedented scale due to heightened wildfire risks from high winds, the utility said. Pacific Gas & Electric Co, a unit of PG&E Corp, said on Tuesday it was extending a previously announced “public safety power shutoff” to 34 counties in northern and central California, marking the largest such precautionary outage the utility has undertaken to date. Power will be turned off to communities in stages, starting in northern California, just after 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, depending on the timing of high-wind conditions locally, PG&E said in a statement.



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