Tag Archives: Polling

'The biggest joke in politics': Trump campaign chief disses 2020 polling

'The biggest joke in politics': Trump campaign chief disses 2020 polling"The country is too complex now just to call a couple hundred people and ask them what they think," Brad Parscale said.



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Trump campaign is firing pollsters after humiliating polling numbers are leaked

Trump campaign is firing pollsters after humiliating polling numbers are leakedDonald Trump’s campaign has decided to fire some of its pollsters after a leak of poor internal polls for the US president that he denied existed.Just two days before Mr Trump is set to kick off his bid for re-election, a top adviser said on Sunday that the campaign was cutting ties with three of its five pollsters to prevent further disclosure of survey data. The polling showed Mr Trump behind former vice president Joe Biden in several key battleground states, including by double digits in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.The results were confirmed by advisers to Mr Trump, but when they became public he called them “fake polls.”For days, aides to Mr Trump have tried to figure out whom to point the finger at over the leak of the data, which jolted and infuriated the president. But in continuing to discuss it, aides violated a long-held unofficial rule of campaigns not to comment publicly on internal polling, even if the numbers leak.[gallery-0] The resulting furore led to an effort by the campaign manager, Brad Parscale, to tighten control. By removing several pollsters, the campaign hopes to shrink the circle of outside operatives who have access to information that could leak, according to the presidential adviser who was not authorised to speak publicly.The rupture of the team came even as the US president and his advisers were preparing for a large and elaborate rally in Orlando, Florida, on Tuesday night to formally open his campaign for a second term. Mr Trump was hoping for a show of strength as Democrats had drawn increasing attention before their first debates on 26 and 27 June. The internal poll numbers, while not predictive, painted a bleak picture of the current state of the race for Mr Trump, at least against Mr Biden, when they were taken in March. They showed a number of critical states at risk – not just Florida and the Midwestern states, but even some longtime Republican bastions like Georgia. A Democratic state that Mr Trump’s aides have insisted they want to put in play, Minnesota, appeared out of reach for the president.The polling was reported on by The New York Times nearly two months ago without citing specific numbers. Last week, The Times reported that Mr Trump had told aides to deny that such polls existed and to say that other data in the survey showed him doing well.Some aides to the US president appeared to be using the episode to undermine one of the president’s closest advisers, Kellyanne Conway, who was Trump’s final campaign manager in 2016 and is now his White House counsellor.Ms Conway’s relationship with Mr Trump, and the praise he has given her for his 2016 victory, have long stirred envy among other advisers to the president. Her former firm, the Polling Co, was one of the ones to be ousted.Ms Conway no longer has any formal ties to the company, which was sold in 2017 to CRC Public Relations, a well-known conservative advocacy firm.In addition to Ms Conway’s former firm, the Trump adviser said the campaign would cut ties with Adam Geller, a pollster for former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, and Michael Baselice, a pollster for former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California. Both men were late additions to Mr Trump’s campaign in 2016.NBC News first reported the decision to oust the pollsters, although it did not identify which ones. Two other pollsters, Tony Fabrizio and John McLaughlin, will remain with the campaign.Mr Fabrizio conducted the March survey for Mr Trump. As a pollster, he worked for Mr Trump’s company many years ago.But he was brought into the 2016 campaign by Paul Manafort, Mr Trump’s former campaign chairman who was one of the people charged by the special counsel, Robert Mueller.Mr McLaughlin has known Mr Trump for years and did informal work for him in 2011 when the real estate developer was considering running for president.Mr Fabrizio and Ms Conway declined to comment. Mr McLaughlin and the other pollsters did not immediately respond to requests for comment.In recent weeks, Mr Trump has angrily denied receiving polls showing him losing or instructing aides to deny them. “Those polls don’t exist,” Mr Trump told ABC News in an interview broadcast on Thursday.“I just had a meeting with somebody that’s a pollster and I’m winning everywhere, so I don’t know what you’re talking about.”But on Friday, ABC reported specific information from that supposedly fake polling. The data obtained by ABC showed Mr Biden leading Trump 55 per cent – 39 per cent in Pennsylvania, 51 per cent – 41 per cent in Wisconsin and by 7 points in Florida. The US president was leading in Texas, a bulwark for Republican presidential candidates for four decades, by just 2 points.When approached by the network with the numbers, Mr Parscale confirmed that they were accurate, but dismissed them as outdated, insisting that the president’s public standing had subsequently been helped by Attorney General William Barr’s initial characterisation of the special counsel’s report. A redacted version of Mueller’s report has since been released, showing that it was not as favourable as Mr Barr suggested.“These leaked numbers are ancient, in campaign terms, from months-old polling that began in March before two major events had occurred: the release of the summary of the Mueller report exonerating the president, and the beginning of the Democrat candidates defining themselves with their far-left policy message,” Mr Parscale said in a statement on Friday.“Since then, we have seen huge swings in the president’s favour across the 17 states we have polled, based on the policies now espoused by the Democrats,” he said. “The president is correct that we have no current polls against defined Democrats – at all – that show him losing in any of the states we have tested.”Internal polls, like any other surveys, are a snapshot in time and not predictive more than 18 months from Election Day, especially with Mr Trump’s Democratic challenger yet to be determined. Historically, they are used by campaigns to guide their understanding of where to expend resources, and of the mood of the electorate.But Mr Trump is famously focused on numbers as affirmation – the larger the better – and he has recoiled at suggestions that he is struggling in a general election contest. Throughout 2016, Mr Trump began almost every conversation with reporters by highlighting his polling lead in public surveys of the Republican primary field.“Well, the polls I see, we’re doing great in Pennsylvania,” he said in a telephone interview with “Fox & Friends” on Friday. “We’re doing really good in North Carolina. Florida, I’m winning by a lot. Ohio, I’m winning by a lot. I just left Iowa. We’re winning that by a lot. And every poll that I see and every poll that we have, I’m winning by – we’re doing well.”New York Times



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Deripaska Didn't Receive Polling Data or Briefings: Spokeswoman

Deripaska Didn't Receive Polling Data or Briefings: Spokeswoman(Bloomberg) — Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska didn’t receive U.S. polling data or briefings on then-candidate Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential run, according to his spokeswoman.



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Minority Arabs in Israel object to cameras at polling centers

Minority Arabs in Israel object to cameras at polling centersUMM AL-FAHM, Israel (Reuters) – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party sent monitors equipped with body cameras to a number of polling stations with Arab constituents on election day in Israel on Tuesday, and Arab politicians condemned the move as voter intimidation. Asked about the use of cameras in polling stations, Israeli police said there had been “a number of suspected irregularities” in the north, where many Israeli Arabs – who comprise 21 percent of the population – live. Netanyahu, head of the right-wing Likud party who opinion polls showed was neck-and-neck with a centrist rival, defended the filming, saying that cameras should be posted openly at voting stations everywhere to ensure “a valid vote”.



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Comedian leads presidential polling in Ukraine

Comedian leads presidential polling in UkraineKIEV, Ukraine (AP) — A comedian who's never held political office tops the public opinion polls ahead of Ukraine's presidential election, but even he appears to be falling far short of enough support to win in the first round.



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Manafort allegedly lied about giving polling data to Russian: court filing

Manafort allegedly lied about giving polling data to Russian: court filingBefore sending the document to a public database for federal court filings, lawyers for Manafort had tried to black out the portion on polling data and other information about Manafort’s interactions with Konstantin Kilimnik, a former business partner of Manafort’s who Mueller has claimed in court filings has ties to Russian intelligence. Reuters did not independently review the filing, which was soon replaced in the public database with a properly redacted version. Manafort’s lawyers did not respond to a request for comment on the matter.



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Israeli ex-general, polling closest to Netanyahu, joins 2019 election race

Israeli ex-general, polling closest to Netanyahu, joins 2019 election raceA former Israeli armed forces chief who opinion polls show poses the toughest challenge to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bid for reelection next year formally established a political party on Thursday. Details about Benny Gantz’s Israel Resilience Party, leaked to local media after it was registered, gave little indication of its ideological tilt. Along with preserving Israel as “a Jewish and democratic country”, the party pledged unspecified changes to priorities in national security and the economy.



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Man arrested after threatening to open fire at Pennsylvania polling place

Man arrested after threatening to open fire at Pennsylvania polling placePennsylvania authorities arrested a man on Tuesday after he allegedly



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Afghanistan elections delayed in Kandahar as nation braces for  polling day violence

Afghanistan elections delayed in Kandahar as nation braces for  polling day violenceVoting for parliamentary elections in Afghanistan's second city has been postponed after a key security official was assassinated and the country braced for widespread insurgent violence on polling day. Taliban commanders on Friday tried to further disrupt the election by issuing a nationwide demand for people to remain at home rather than head to the polls. The vote is seen as a test of president Ashraf Ghani's grip on the country after a grim year of soaring casualties among his forces and civilians and further encroachment by a buoyant Taliban. Dr Ghani's weary international backers, particularly Donald Trump, are desperate for signs of stability and progress after 17-years of pouring troops and money into the country. Yet preparations were dealt a severe blow on Thursday when Kandahar's powerful police chief, Gen Abdul Raziq, was shot dead in an insider attack claimed by the Taliban. Election workers prepare for the country's third parliamentary poll since the Taliban were ousted Credit: Reuters Gen Raziq had been a bastion against Taliban encroachment in the region with a ruthless campaign against the insurgents which had largely stabilised Kandahar and made him the most powerful government figure in southern Afghanistan. The attack at a meeting with US commander, Gen Scott Miller, killed the local intelligence chief and critically wounded the provincial governor, wiping out the local leadership at a stroke. Kandahar, once considered the stronghold of the Taliban movement, was on edge the day after the attack, as funerals were held and officials decided to postpone voting for a week. The Taliban have vowed to disrupt an election they declare a sham and its military council issued a statement warning voters that “participation in this process is aiding the invaders”. It ordered Afghans to “remain indoors and desist from bringing out any means of transport”. A bloody or badly flawed election is predicted to strengthen the Taliban's hand in fledgling talks to find a political settlement to the conflict. More than nine million Afghans are registered to vote in what is only the third parliamentary poll since the Taliban were ousted after the 9/11 attacks. Around 2,500 candidates are standing for 249 seats in a parliament which has in the past decade gained a reputation for graft and greed. This year's polls have already been delayed since 2015 because of rifts within Dr Ghani's government and rows how to clean up the voting system. The vote sees a new generation of election hopefuls, many younger and better educated than previous candidates, take on an old guard frequently tainted with accusations of corruption or involvement in the bloodshed of the 1990s civil war. But the new generation also contains a raft of candidates whose fathers were formerly some of the country's most prominent Mujahideen warlords of the 1990s, and who have been towering figures of Afghan life for decades. This year's voting lists include children of notorious leaders including Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the Uzbek strongman Gen Abdul Rashid Dostum, and the Herat powerbroker Ismail Khan. Jamaluddin Hekmatyar, whose father is remembered for indiscriminately bombarding Kabul as he squabbled with his former comrades in the 1990s, is standing as a member of his father's Hezb-e Islami party. The 42-year-old told the Telegraph he had not gained his candidacy through nepotism and wanted to “represent the people and fight for their rights”. “I have learned from my father to fight for our values, each nation has the right to be independent and we must fight for a good future, no matter how long that fight would be but we should resist.” He said it was not for him to answer for the deeds of the Mujahideen commanders. “I think it’s not a good analysis if we say only Mujahideen leaders committed mistakes here, we should note foreigners role in Afghanistan too.” The possible rise of children whose fathers presided over the destruction of the 1990s is eyed warily by many Afghans. “There will be no deference between the Mujahideen leaders and their children,” said one Herat resident who lost two uncles during the barbarity of the 1990s, “they are just a shadow of their dads”. “Mujahideen leaders want to rule their policies through their children. They are all educated in the West by the money that their dads received by selling the blood of innocent Afghans.”



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Beto still trails Cruz in Texas Senate polling

Beto still trails Cruz in Texas Senate pollingA new Quinnipiac poll has found that Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s long-shot quest to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, which has generated so much enthusiasm and financial support from national Democrats, has stalled well short of success.



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