(Bloomberg) — The number of migrants crossing the U.S. southern border fell in June, the U.S. government said, in the first major test of an immigration enforcement deal President Donald Trump negotiated with Mexico after threatening the country with tariffs.About 104,000 migrants were caught after crossing into the U.S. or turned away at the Mexican border in June, compared to 144,000 a month earlier, Customs and Border Protection said Tuesday in a statement, though levels normally slump in summer. The numbers had more than doubled from January to May, leading Trump to threaten tariffs unless Mexico did something to slow the flow of people across the border.The countries struck a deal on June 7 in which Mexico agreed to deploy soldiers at its own southern border and increase enforcement along migration routes. The deal was somewhat temporary, and Mexico has said it will explore new measures if apprehensions didn’t fall within 45 days of the countries’ agreement.QuickTake: The Countries (Not Mexico) Fueling U.S. Border CrisisTrump had already said the numbers had been reduced.“The numbers are going down because Mexico is doing a lot,” Trump told reporters on Sunday. “Thanks to Mexico, it’s slowing down greatly, and I think you’ll start seeing some very good numbers.”The decline in June likely means a tariff reprieve, at least for now — in particular, as the Trump administration continues to push for Congress to ratify its trade deal with Canada and Mexico. Adding tariffs on its southern trading partner could have hurt the chances of ratification.However, apprehensions traditionally dip in the summer months, when hot weather makes migration more arduous and dangerous, meaning that it’s difficult to tell how much of the reduction can be attributed to Mexican enforcement. There were 43,000 migrants apprehended at the southern border or deemed inadmissible to the U.S. in June 2018, less than half of last month’s number.The true test of the U.S.-Mexico accord may have to wait until fall, when the numbers historically rise again. The pact came after frenzied talks spurred by Trump’s threat to apply a 5% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico, and then to steadily increase that tariff if he wasn’t satisfied.Trump continues to push for congressional changes to curb the flow of migrants, many of them asylum seekers from the so-called northern triangle nations of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. Migrants travel from those countries, through Mexico and to the U.S.Trump has demanded Congress act to change the laws to cut the incentive for migrants to set off on the lengthy journey. He is also pressing Mexico and Guatemala to sign agreements that would give the U.S. greater power to immediately send migrants back to those countries.The spike in migration has swamped U.S. facilities at the border, which Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has called “concentration camps.” A Department of Homeland Security watchdog report this month found “dangerous overcrowding” that poses an “immediate risk to the health and safety of DHS agents and officers, and to those detained.”Trump has bristled over the issue, accusing news organizations of exaggerating the plight of migrants in U.S. detention and blaming Democratic lawmakers for not moving faster to provide more money to improve conditions. He and other administration officials have criticized Democrats for earlier dismissing the idea that the border is in crisis.(Updates with details on migrants in ninth paragraph.)To contact the reporters on this story: Josh Wingrove in Washington at jwingrove4@bloomberg.net;Justin Sink in Washington at jsink1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Wayne at awayne3@bloomberg.net, Michael Shepard, Laurie AsséoFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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