For the first 13 days of Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance, Saudi Arabia held fast to its official position: We had no involvement; he left the consulate safely; any suggestion we are responsible is a political smear.  But last night things began to shift. Under intense pressure from Washington and business leaders around the world, Riyadh now appears to be preparing to acknowledge that Mr Khashoggi was in fact killed inside the consulate.  The narrative they plan to present, according to the New York Times, is that the Saudi government ordered its operatives to interrogate Mr Khashoggi but that something went wrong and the journalist was accidentally killed.  Panicked spies then reportedly hid his body and launched a cover-up, unbeknownst to Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and country's de facto leader. The person who will be blamed is described as “a Saudi intelligence official who was a friend of the crown prince”.    The explanation has a clear appeal: it allows Saudi Arabia to concede (in the face of what appears to be overwhelming Turkish evidence) that Mr Khashoggi was killed, but shields the crown prince from responsibility.  The new Saudi narrative would protect Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince Credit: REUTERS/Amir Levy/File Photo However, there are major holes in the story.  Among the 15-strong Saudi “hit team” who reportedly flew into Istanbul on private jets the day of Mr Khashoggi’s disappearance was a man named Salah Muhammed al-Tubaigy.  Mr Tubaigy is understood to be a Saudi forensic expert, who specialises in gathering DNA from crime scenes and dissecting bodies. He reportedly stayed in Istanbul until 11pm on October 2, the day the journalist vanished, long enough to supervise a clean up at the consulate.  Turkish officials have also claimed the Saudis brought a bone saw with them from Riyadh, raising questions about the claim that Mr Khashoggi  was supposed to live.    The new narrative also presents the cover up as a hasty act of panic after a terrible mistake.  Mr Khashoggi entered the consulate at 1.14pm. Less than two hours later diplomatic vans left the scene. Credit: CCTV/Hurriyet via AP That is not how it looks from the outside. Turkish CCTV shows that Mr Khashoggi entered the consulate at 1.14pm. At 3.08pm – less than two hours later – a convoy of Saudi diplomatic vehicles, believed to be carrying his body – left the consulate and drove the short distance to the consul-general’s residence.  Turkish media reported that Saudi drivers rehearsed the maneuvre the day before, apparently making sure that the large black vans would fit inside the consul-general’s garage.  By that evening, it was all over and the 15 Saudis had departed from Turkey. Mr Khashoggi remains missing two weeks later. But for all the problems with the “rogue killers” line, it may still be the most convenient one for the US and Turkey to swallow.  Neither country is looking for a high-level diplomatic confrontation with Riyadh and both countries have strong incentives to agree a version of events that absolves Crown Prince Mohammed.  A Turkish forensic police officer shoots video in a room of the Saudi Arabia's Consulate Credit: (AP Photo/Emrah Gurel) Turkey’s economy is brittle and foreign investors have been shying away as they watch Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, centralise power and pursue unorthodox economic theories.  If Turkey lets Riyadh off the hook over Mr Khashoggi’s death, it may expect Saudi loans and investments to start flowing its way.    Meanwhile, Washington has invested heavily in its relationship with Saudi Arabia and especially in the crown prince, who has been presented as a modernising reformer.  Donald Trump claims to have rallied the Islamic world against terrorism and hopes that the Saudis will pressure the Palestinians into accepting his Middle East plan.  All of that becomes much more difficult if the US accuses the crown prince of involvement in Mr Khashoggi’s death. An explanation that exonerates Mohammed bin Salman may be the White House’s best chance of getting through the Khashoggi saga without derailing US-Saudi relations.    The “rogue killers” theory may be riddled with holes. But it may also be the story that the White House decides to believe. 

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